I guess you can say I'm a little more paranoid than the average person (just a tad :wink: ). I've been following the bird flu on the news recently and it seems the virus is migrating away from South Asia, towards Russia, Kazakhstan, etc. It seems the virus hasn't mutated to a point conducive to conditions for a pandemic, but it might be getting there. How is the general Czech population taking this? Do they have a laissez faire attitude towards this global problem or are they anxiously aware of this? My gf lives in Brno and paranoid as I am, I wake up in cold sweat at nights all nervous and depressed that she could end up with the virus, if it indeed spreads to Europe. Given that the mortality rate is around 80%, those are odds I don't like. If the bird flu upgrades into a pandemic, projections are anywhere from a few million to a billion or more deaths worldwide. My gf keeps telling me to relax, but then again she doesn't take too many things seriously. I'm taking no chances, so I ordered some antivirals for her now when they are available. Knowing human nature and just general complacency and laziness, most won't stock up until it hits home and then they'll try to acquire them like vultures, all at once, resulting in panic and desperation. It might not be a bad idea to stock up on some antivirals, fellow board members. But then again, I may be just a paranoid fool. Anyhow, how are people regarding the bird flu in the Czech Republic? Do you think it likely to come there? Thanks in advance.
Well I haven't heard much about this and I don't live in the CR but here's my opinion after doing a little research... Asia is a fairly crowded place, however since 2003 only 50 people have died from this flu. given your 80% chance of death, that emans not many people have been infected at all. For the disease to be transported it would have to be transported by a sick bird. These birds have to fly nearly 4000 kilometres to reach the CR I believe. I don't think an infected bird would make that journey. Also, take Switzerland for example. At the most there are 280,000 birds that migrate there from Asia. These birds are water fowl and live offshore away from human contact. These aren't the pidgeons in the street or a duck at the local pond. A person would really have to go out of their way to immerse themselves in these birds to get infected, and then go spread the disease very rapidly. What are the chances of that, I don't know. I don't know how quickly this flu kills. Even if there was a problem, the WHO (world health organization; great acronym!) has 125,000 vaccines now and their goal is to stockpile at least 1,000,000. I don't think this will be a problem...at least I hope not Just my opinion after some brief research
At this point, you're right. The flu hasn't satisfactorily demonstrated that it can pass from person to person, but if (and possibly when) the virus mutates (flu virus is highly adaptable and unpredictable) into a human to human transmittable form, the bird flu will spread just like normal flu. And everyone knows how very easily contagious normal flu is. As long as the bird flu virus stays in its current state, it shouldn't be that much of a problem, but that remains to be seen. Regarding the vaccine, I've heard conflicting reports that people are stockpiling them and some that say they will begin mid-September. I tend to believe the latter and it makes sense. The private pharmaceutical companies don't want to make millions of dollars worth of drugs that might not be needed. They are going to complete their normal annual flu vaccine production first which ends around mid-September, then perhaps they'll think of producing the bird flu vaccine. Also, you have to take into account that WHO and the governments don't want to incite a panic, so of course, they'll tone down the reality - I believe they are capable of it. And for the sake of argument, let's say we have 1,000,000 vaccines and vaccines that actually fend off the bird flu. The world population consists of like several billion people, so more vaccines (on the factor of a thousand) needs to be produced to stamp out the virus. But I really hope you're right and it doesn't come to that. Again, I'm only conveying a worst case scenario.
well you are right that we dont have enough vaccines for everyone, that would be impossible and is unecessary. If the flu does start affecting humans that much i would expect every country to close its borders for some time. only those living where they may come in contact with the flu would need a vaccine. For instance, North and South America would most likely be fine, i doubt a bird would fly over the Atlantic or Pacific and infect us :lol: If we just didnt accept any incoming flights then we would be fine. SO would all countries I believe/hope. Hopefully it won't happen but if one country is infected they will be quarantined and it will not spread... Not much we really can do about it if it gets that bad.
It seems like this is really starting to hit the fan now. Is there growing consternation over the impending Avian Influenza in the CR? Has peoples' attitudes changed or is the general population still apathetic and not informed enough?
