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Shaken but still prickly. That's how
the New York Times described Václav Klaus after his Civic
Democrats, with 24% of vote, came in second to the Social
Democrats. And he proved their point by accepting no responsibility
for a campaign that focused squarely on him, by insisting
that the only real winners were the Communists, who picked
up every seat lost by the other three major parties. The
Communists were able to capitalize on low voter turnout
and a wave of nostalgia now sweeping the country to capture
18% of the vote, or more than one-fifth of the seats in
parliament. They can also thank Klaus for his part in their
comeback. He not only reached out to them to support his
nationalist program, but his party's campaign of fear explicitly
warned voters to "Stop the Socialists!" No word
at all about the Communists. In the days after the vote,
he even assured Communist Party leader Miroslav Grebenicek
that he didn't vote for banning his party way back when
(adding it would disappear on its own accord - he got that
one wrong, too). It could be that Klaus is simply hedging
his bets. Even with two defeats under his belt, he can still
make life miserable for the Social Democrats and they know
it. Their leader, Vladimir Spidla, swore during the campaign
that co-habitation with Klaus was over. But with barely
30% of the vote, his best option is to form a coalition
government with the Coalition Party. The problem there is
the junior partners in that shaky organization, the oddly-named
Unionists, are convinced that the senior partners, the equally
oddly-named Populists, are determined to squeeze them out
of the future government. The two have even sworn off cooperation
in upcoming local elections. The Coalition's lame 14% showing
would leave Spidla with a one-vote majority in parliament,
and two of those votes belong to independents who have decamped
to the Socialist Democrats. All it would take is one squabble
over breakfast to bring the whole government down. And nobody
squabbles like the Coalition does, nor has as many enemies.
A coalition government with the Communists, who are ideologically
closer to the Social Democrats in any case, would give Spidla
solid support in parliament. But the Communists remain a
pariah party for many, including, most importantly, President
Havel, who leaves office in February, and he is not about
to be remembered as the president who brought the Communists
back into power. Now that Klaus won't be premier, he's available
again to be president, and in this country, the president
is elected by parliament, not by the people. His new chummy
rapport with the Communists might have something to do with
that, inasmuch as Spidla has already declared that his party
would support out-going premier Milos Zeman for the job.
Spidla is already off to a rough start if he takes seriously
the idea of Zeman, a public smoker and drinker who delights
in insulting people, as the president of any country. Perhaps
it's only a smokescreen for Klaus to bring his party on
board. In return, he will get the big cheese and the Democrats
can continue their power-sharing agreement. The presence
of the Civic Democrats in the cabinet would also be a welcome
relief to those who fear Spidla's leftist leanings. An avowed
Socialist, he's all for taxing the rich to pay for a generous
welfare state. He's also determined to bring the Czech Republic
into the European Union and knows he will have to get the
budget under control to make that happen. But the election
results have shown that the Czechs like their free college
education, prescription drugs, universal health insurance,
welfare for families, and so on. One of the more obnoxious
slogans to come out of the campaign claimed, "The people
vote for Klaus." But Klaus told the people that enough
was enough, that it was time for them to pay their own way.
The result is his party lost in every single region of the
country except one in north Bohemia and, of course, in Prague.
But the party still numbers some young, capable professionals
who are ready to throw off the arrogance that besets their
party, ready to work with the young, capable professionals
in the Social Democrats. It's just a question of making
room at the top. And that won't be easy with leaders like
Vlastimil Tlusty, the minority whip for the Civic Democrats.
When asked to explain his party's defeat, his reply was,
"I have nothing to say to you whatsoever. I'm on my
way to have a sandwich."
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